Saturday July 31, 2010      
 

It is impossible to begin a discussion about tangible assets without looking at the events of March 12th in the stock market. All the changes taking place currently that are positive for tangible assets are certainly not good news for equity investors. On Monday, March 12th, the stock market plunged across the board. The NASDAQ dropped 6.3% to 1923. This is the first time the NASDAQ has closed below 2000 since December 1998. This hit leaves the NASDAQ 62% off of its all time high accomplished only one year ago. The DOW was also hammered falling 4.1% to 10,208. The S&P 500 fell 4.3% to 1180 officially putting these markets into bear markets for the first time in twenty years.

The really bad news for equity investors is that stocks are still too pricey. The headlines of the Wall Street Journal announces this fact claiming the market will move much lower as corporate earnings continue to fall. Even with this recent drop, the NASDAQ is still trading at over 1000 times earnings. Just to return to the valuations of March 2000, the NASDAQ could fall another 75% from its current levels.

Finally, Wall Street is beginning to admit that we are in a bear market. The questions you, as an investor, must ask are: Am I willing to bet my portfolio that President Bush and the Senate will work out a tax cut package? Further, will that effort be enough to stimulate the economy quickly enough to restore profits to corporate America? Finally, will that effort put a halt to sliding equity investments?

The answers to these questions will unfold over the next several months; but in the interim, Turamali, Inc. is recommending an increase in tangible assets to a minimum of 15% of one's investable portfolio. In order to accomplish your investment goals, I offer the following observations:

GOLD
As a preface, I would like to quote from Harry Schultz's 3/1/2001 newsletter: "Second Op- portunity of a Lifetime. It happened from 1969 to 1979 - ten golden years and it appears to be happening now from 2001 to perhaps 2011. Nobody believed it at the beginning then either. I should know. I was writing HSL since 1964. No one can guarantee the future, but here's the evidence so you can decide yourself."

There are so many dynamics in the gold market that it seems almost a certainty that gold will finally begin to rise. The most important issue has been GATA's suit against the gold price fixers. Will this suit that we have discussed for over two years which was filed in Boston finally bring an end to price collusion among Central banks and larger brokerage firms? This is without question the biggest gold event in over twenty years. It is also the ONLY time the U.S. government has been accused of wrong doing in a court case. Many feel that even if GATA doesn't win, it will put a stop to the collusion between the U.S. Treasury and large brokerage firms allowing gold to trade in more of a free market. The U.S. Treasury's reply is due March 15th. Some defendants have until March 30th with one extended until April 10th. The common thought is that most of these entities will move to have the case dismissed.

There are many people who feel there is a great deal of evidence; so we are beginning to see something very unique happen in the gold stock business. Recently, HomeStake rose 60% and Barrick Gold is up 33% since October. Agnico Eagle is up 43% since November and Durban Deep is up 110% since November. It is amazing to see such big moves in gold stocks; yet, gold bullion has not seen those types of moves. It is important to note, however, that gold has moved from $258 per ounce to $273 per ounce. It certainly is an investment that will do much better than equity markets and is where investors should move a percentage of their portfolios immediately.

We continue to recommend Gold American Eagles, Australian Kangaroos, Canadian Maple Leafs, and bullion coins along with Swiss 20 Francs and British Sovereigns as semi-numismatic choices. These coins now carry a little lower premium than they did for the past two years after the premium run-up during Y2K.

SILVER
We are less optimistic about silver than any other metal. The price of silver has dropped in the past two months from $4.87 to $4.47 per ounce. We continue to believe that silver which is falling out of favor as a choice for industrial purposes will not ignite until clearer and larger inflation numbers are in place. With the economy contracting and corporate profits plummeting, I do not expect higher inflation until perhaps the fall (and maybe not even then). You should remember that while commodity prices soared in January and early February and while inflation showed a healthy increase in January, it did slow in February with expectations that it will slow throughout March.

If you are holding junk silver or silver rounds, Turamali, Inc. suggests that you might consider making an exchange for gold or platinum - especially if more than 5% of your holdings are in silver.

PLATINUM
We have written about platinum a lot lately. This month marks the two-year anniversary of our buy signal at $340 per ounce. When we reaffirmed our buy signal in February 2000, platinum had just hit $600 and experienced some resistance. Today, platinum's spot price is $575 per ounce and it has been as high as $650 per ounce. This consolidation over the past year has given investors an opportunity to move into platinum. With only 1% of platinum's current demand going for investment, any surge in investment activity could push platinum to our target price of $1,000 per ounce in the next twenty-four months. With the car industry moving toward platinum and rhodium (away from palladium), watch platinum to experience a strong shift back in demand. Couple that with the shifting demand from gold to platinum for jewelry - especially in the Far East. Lastly, add these factors to the mining problems in South Africa and Siberia. Platinum therefore appears as an investment ready to take off. One of the reasons platinum has remained stable for the past year has been the Japanese economy. Watch for fiscal stimulation there, which may also be a positive factor for platinum later in the year. We recommend that platinum be acquired in one ounce bars and one ounce coins (i.e., Platinum American Eagle, Canadian Platinum Maple Leaf, and Australian Platinum Koala).

DIAMONDS
The news from the diamond industry has centered around the efforts of Nicky Oppenheimer, Chairman of DeBeers, to take DeBeers private. This $17.6 billion leveraged buyout will offer DeBeer's shareholders $43 per share. While the deal is very complicated since Anglo American PLC and Debswana are large owners of DeBeers (with DeBeers being large owners of these companies also), a very complicated structure is necessary in order to carry this company private. There are many opinions as to why Mr. Oppenheimer is making a move to take the largest publicly traded company private. One of the most interesting is that he foresees a boom in diamonds and hard assets. Perhaps he doesn't want to share the profit with stockholders?

Also on the diamond front, DeBeers is moving into the retail business for the first time. This is a very un-nerving process for many jewelers who feel that DeBeers is cutting off the hand of the retailers that have fed them throughout the last 100 years. DeBeers has entered into a joint venture with the company, LVMH, who will move them into the retail business for the next century.

With all of these changes, the diamond market is growing dramatically. DeBeers has seen two excellent years back to back and they expect the next decade to be even better. As we have mentioned on several occasions, there is not a more stable investment than colored diamonds which enjoy an extreme rarity and which benefit from the control of DeBeers. Turamali, Inc. believes colored diamonds, in particular, will flourish over the next decade with prices moving firmly upward. A GIA certificate should accompany any colored diamond purchase as it guarantees a stone's color.

The market for traditional white diamonds has also been in an upward mode for the past eight months. This could continue, but generally white stones are more sensitive to the economy. Therefore, this market could soften if the economy continues to weaken. As more and more of our investors are moving into colored diamonds, please don't hesitate to become a part. To learn more about colored diamonds, please feel free to phone us at (800) 247-2812.

COLORED GEMSTONES
This area of the tangibles arena is also experiencing some of the biggest changes in over a decade. I visited Tucson for the World Gemstone Show in February. It was amazing to see the changes and the activity in colored stones. Recently, we were able to bring to our clients an incredible deal for rubellite at prices that were 15% to 25% below wholesale from anything I saw in Tucson. In other words, I was seeing higher prices at the wholesale trade show in February than what you, our clients, were paying for comparable goods.

Through two new contacts that were made in Tucson, I have developed a relationship that I feel will produce another bank liquidation within the next several weeks. This time the stones involved are aquamarine and topaz. I will keep you posted as this particular deal is finalized.

Another stone gaining publicity is the spessertine garnet discovered in Nigeria two or three years ago. This stone is now being mined quicker and demand has increased as more and more material is available for sale. We hope to be able to offer this particular stone in the near future; but because there are so few people that have access to this material, I must be assured that we have at least seventy-five stones before we can offer it to our clientele.

C&A continues to believe that gemstones should represent one to three percent of an investor's portfolio and added as a special purchase whenever stones are available at wholesale levels (or below).

Lastly, "museum" quality gemstones are always an excellent purchase for those investors looking for a donation option. They can also be held for investment as well. Currently, we have six "museum" stones and you can find out more about them by visiting our website at www.turamali.com.

HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS
No other area of tangibles has been impacted as much as historical documents with the evolution of the Internet. The Internet has allowed more people to enter this particular market. Further, it has allowed dealers to offer documents with lower markups. This has affected the historical document market both negatively and positively. There is no area of tangible assets that has changed more. For example, dealers are not carrying large inventories as they once did just a few years ago. The positive is that many new collectors have been drawn into this arena. Subsequently, true "investment" documents seem to have vanished from the marketplace.

I recently reviewed items that I have on my "shopping list" for various collectors. I have over $500,000 of potential orders that I have not been able to fill due simply to the fact that top end material is not available.

The historical document business will continue to experience changes for the next year or two given the newly created avenues afforded by the Internet. In light of this, C&A is recommending to our clients that they hold their documents in order to allow prices to catch up (after the initial drop which was caused by the newly created Internet market). Margins for dealers in this area have tightened driving some dealers out of business. Collectors and investors should always take advantage of any truly rare pieces since there is no question in our minds that select documents will simply become unavailable. Some of those that we expect to vanish are: Washington, Lincoln, Jefferson, Kennedy, Robert E. Lee, Stonewall Jackson, JEB Stuart, Nathan Bedford Forrest, Patrick Henry, and John Hancock.

C&A also recommends that investors continue to stay out of the sports memorabilia arena since most of this market is overpriced. There are a few exceptions, but our advice is to be careful when making a purchase.

RARE COINS
For the first time in ten years, C&A is considering a buy signal for rare coins. While we are not ready to issue a formal buy signal here, remember that for the past thirteen years rare coins have been bought and sold on a trading system and are now liquid just like gold bullion coins. The key is that the coins should be certified by the PCGS or NGC. At this time, we are recommending the $20 St. Gaudens (M64) which can be acquired for around $450 per coin. They are down from $600 in 2000 and down from a high of $1,500. The same factors that are driving gold shares have also been driving rare coins over the past two months. Some have risen between 4% to 10%. The reasons outlined above within the gold section could open the door for significant appreciation for the first time in a decade. C&A is not recommending silver rare coins, but we do think investors should begin to take advantage of the low prices in select rare gold coins since we feel this area will appreciate over the next several years.

GEMSTONE GLOBES
We have a very unusual opportunity - ideal for gift giving or for enjoyment in your home or office! We now have gemstone globes that are absolutely exquisite! They are made from lapis lazuli and other fine colored stones that are used to denote various countries. The globes are available through our gemstone affiliate, Turamali, Inc. You can see these colorful and truly beautiful globes by clicking here . A full description and the prices are featured on our website. The globes are being liquidated directly by the manufacturer in China and our prices are well below wholesale. Let me give you just one example. The 220mm globe that Turamali is selling for $225 is wholesaled to major jewelry chains for $500 to $700 by every source we have checked. Currently in Atlanta, a 220mm globe sells for $1,899 and $2,200 at several reputable jewelry stores. You can purchase this particular globe for $225 (plus postage). If you have done any browsing in finer jewelry stores lately, you will quickly recognize these globes. So, take a look at our incredible offer on the globes we have for sale in sizes of 50 mm up to 220 mm. (We have one very large globe that retails from $50,000 up to $60,000.)

CLOSING REMARKS
Finally, we are requesting your assistance. Due to the overwhelming number of requests for our newsletter (well into the thousands), we have to initiate some changes! The costs and labor required to physically mail C&A's newsletter has become too great and we are streamlining this process in order to provide a quality newsletter to each and every interested reader. Effective immediately, there are three options which will allow you to continue to receive C&A's newsletter on a timely basis. PLEASE TAKE A MOMENT TO REVIEW THESE OPTIONS and COMPLETE AND RETURN THE ATTACHED FORM. Remember, we need to hear from you in order to maintain your name on file. THANKS FOR YOUR COOPERATION!

 

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