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ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL for the FIRST HALF of 2003
In adjusting our asset allocation model for the first half of 2003, we are taking a very conservative approach overall while still looking to be more aggressive in both foreign currencies and tangible assets. Looking back at 2002, we saw gold bullion rise over 24% while the dollar fell over 10% against nine different currencies. The beginning of 2003 looks exactly as it did in early 2002; but the momentum in the areas of foreign currency and tangible assets is no where near the peaks these markets should enjoy during the next two years. It is critical to remember that when building an asset allocation model according to Ecclesiastes 11:2, the mandate is first to be good stewards by not having our total focus on investments, but having them spread out to minimize any sharp plunges in the overall portfolio. The second key in building an asset allocation model is to make a profit. Of course, in this area, one must realize that some investments will go up yet others will fall. This is the main reason that each investor should reallocate his portfolio at least once a year, if not two times annually. For the next six months, my hypothetical asset allocation model is as follows:
- Stocks (U.S. and Israeli only) - 5% to 15%
- Gold Mining Stocks - 5% to 15%
- Fixed Income (bonds and annuities) - 30% to 40%
- Foreign Currency (foreign bonds and physical currency) - 25% to 30%
- Tangible Assets (precious metals, gemstones, rare coins and historical documents) - 20% to 30%
- Cash - 15% to 25%
- Real Estate - 15% to 20%
*While the above asset allocation model is designed to help balance risk and give investors security, we strongly recommends consulting with your own personal financial advisor before making any type of change to your personal, retirement, or profit sharing portfolios.
FURTHER CLARIFICATION
(1) Stocks - For the first time since the end of the recession in 1990, it is prudent to have more money in foreign stocks than in domestic stocks. While the whole world is being dragged down economically due to the U.S. and the budget deficits our country is now running, there is still moderate growth in Europe, Australia, and a few other countries that offer undervalued stocks. Most of these could be purchased through select foreign mutual funds and should prove to be the best area for stocks in 2003.
(2) Gold Mining Stocks - Every investor should increase his holdings here given the past year's outstanding performance. Many gold mining shares rose between 50% to 200% in 2002. While many prefer mutual funds, investors should also be looking at select individual stocks as a greater potential should be realized. Keep in mind, however, this is an increase in risk whenever your money is placed into one or more individual stocks as compared to a mutual fund. We continue to recommend American Century's Global Gold Fund at (800) 331-8331, INVESCO Strategic Gold Fund at (800) 525-8085, or Franklin's Gold Fund at (800) 342-5236.
(3) Fixed Income - Part of a fixed income portfolio can be positioned into fixed annuities which are paying 5% or better currently. Part should be placed into domestic bonds or domestic bond funds. While interest rates can't fall much further, the bonds and bond funds still offer a deep recession hedge and should be kept in your portfolio.
(4) Foreign Currency - This area will be one of the two most intriguing areas to watch during '03. During 2002, the dollar dropped 10.2% against the British pound, 20.6% against the Australian dollar, 11% against the Japanese yen, 17.5% against the Euro, 19.5% against the Swiss franc, and finally, 28.5% against the Norwegian Kroner. Any of these currencies can be purchased for your portfolio and held just like gold. Investors can also buy foreign bonds by investing in the American Century International Bond Fund (1-800-345-2021). During 2002, this fund rose over 23%. In short, all investors should be aggressive in the segment of foreign currencies. To discuss a purchase of physical currencies, please give us a call at (800) 247-2812.
(5) Tangible Assets - The bulk of your tangible assets should be positioned into gold. During 2002, gold showed an increase of 24% while silver actually fell nearly 2%. Turamali, Inc. feels that both gold and silver will enjoy a profitable year in 2003. Platinum which has now gone from $340 (when we first recommended it three years ago) to its current price of $640. However, platinum is beginning to hit resistance. If you own platinum, you may want to consider trading it for gold and/or silver. GIA and EGL graded diamonds continue to appreciate. Still showing single digit figures, these diamonds could increase in 2003. For personal consultation on tangible assets, please don't hesitate to give us a call at the toll free number listed above.
(6) Cash - With all the uncertainty, your cash holdings should be increased until a more clear direction is seen in interest rates, stocks, and bonds. As we mentioned in July, one cannot use standard commercial paper money markets to get higher rates than are generally offered by Treasury bill money markets. Again, keep that cash basket a little higher for the next six months and be ready to take advantage of any market opportunities.
(7) Real Estate - While real estate is not climbing at the rates of the past several years, there are still opportunities in REITS, select rental properties along with standard duplex investments and triple net leases.
Allocation Model - 2002
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