Monday February 6, 2012      
 

ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL FOR REMAINDER OF 2002

In adjusting our asset allocation model for the last four months of 2002, we are assuming a very conservative posture since we believe the probability of a moderate recession is likely during late 2002 or early 2003. Remember when building an asset allocation model according to Ecclesiastes 11:2, the mandate is first to be good stewards by diversifying, allowing the time to serve God and not be completely caught up in worshiping our investments. The second, of course, is to make a profit realizing that every area cannot and will not always go in the same direction. The hypothetical asset allocation model below is being offered for the last four months of 2002:
For the next six months, my hypothetical asset allocation model is as follows:

  • Stocks (U.S. and Israeli only) - 10% to 20%
  • Gold Mining Stocks - 4% to 10%
  • Fixed Income (bonds and annuities)- 30% to 40%
  • Foreign Currency (foreign bonds and physical currency) - 20% to 25%
  • Tangible Assets (precious metals, gemstones, rare coins and historical documents) - 15% to 25%
  • Cash - 15% to 25%
  • Real Estate - 15% to 20%

*While the above asset allocation model is designed to help balance risk and give investors security, we strongly recommends consulting with your own personal financial advisor before making any type of change to your personal, retirement, or profit sharing portfolios.

FURTHER CLARIFICATION

(1) Stocks - The Israeli situation remains explosive, but the stock market there is undervalued and could explode upward with any sign of cease fire or temporary peace in the Middle East. In your stock mix, you should also have foreign stocks and foreign mutual funds that equal to your investment in domestic stocks. Certainly, this has proven true for 2002 thus far.

(2) Gold Mining Stocks - Every investor should increase his holdings here given the past year's outstanding performance. Many gold mining shares rose 10% to 25%. We continue to recommend American Century's Global Gold Fund at (800) 331-8331, INVESCO Strategic Gold Fund at (800) 525-8085, or Franklin's Gold Fund at (800) 342-5236.

(3) Fixed Income - Part of a fixed income portfolio can be positioned into fixed annuities which are paying 5.5% or better currently. Part should be placed into domestic bonds or domestic bond funds. While interest rates can't fall much further, the bonds and bond funds still offer a deep recession hedge and should be kept in your portfolio.

(4) Foreign Currency - This area may be the most intriguing, as we look at all the reasons the dollar could drop in 2002. In addition to owning the EURO, we also recommend British pounds and possibly Swiss Francs. Investors can also buy foreign bonds by investing in the American Century International Bond Fund (1-800-345-2021).

(5) Tangible Assets - The bulk should be positioned into gold and silver. Turamali, Inc. feels that both gold and silver will enjoy another profitable year. While platinum has dropped back, we do recommend it as a small part of one's tangible portfolio. Maybe the most under rated tangible asset continues to be colored diamonds. These stones are available at "below wholesale" prices which are coming from Israeli cutters who are liquidating to pay bills.

(6) Cash - With all the uncertainty, your cash holdings should be increased until a more clear direction is seen in interest rates, stocks, and bonds. As we mentioned in July, one cannot use standard commercial paper money markets to get higher rates than are generally offered by Treasury bill money markets. Again, keep that cash basket a little higher for the next six months and be ready to take advantage of any market opportunities.

(7) Real Estate - While real estate is not climbing at the rates of the past several years, there are still opportunities in REITS, select rental properties along with standard duplex investments and triple net leases.